The Marginal Child throughout the Life Cycle: Evidence from Early Law Variation

for helpful discussions, Michael Haines for assistance with census tables, and state law librarians in many states for assistance with historical vice laws. Abstract This paper tests whether the fetal origins hypothesis, which posits that disparities in the pre-and perinatal environment can account for long-term disparities in life expectancy, is applicable to the case of variation in early circumstances due to wantedness. To identify the effects of wantedness on fertility rates and on life expectancy, we exploit overtime variation in the legal restrictions on abortion within U.S. states from 1850 to 1910; we demonstrate that the adoption of these legal restrictions cannot be predicted by other changes in state circumstances. We find that about 9 percent more children were born in times and places when abortion was restricted than in states and times in which it was freely available. Members of these larger cohorts were roughly 5 percent less likely than those in other cohorts to survive into their sixties, and somewhat less likely to be healthy throughout their lives. We identify childhood health and education as possible mechanisms through which wantedness may affect longevity. We conclude that wantedness, like other aspects of a child's early life circumstances, has important effects on life expectancy.